In the race to build artificial intelligence, one company holds all the cards: NVIDIA. It isn’t just a dominant player—it is the AI industry’s gatekeeper, kingmaker, and tax collector, all rolled into one. Its GPUs serve as the engines powering modern AI, while its proprietary CUDA software ensures that no serious contender can escape its gravitational pull. If you want to build AI, you need NVIDIA’s hardware. If you want to run AI, you need NVIDIA’s software. There is no Plan B.

For AI companies, this isn’t just an inconvenience—it’s a stranglehold. The price of an NVIDIA H100 GPU, essential for training AI models, can soar as high as $40,000 per unit. Startups must secure massive funding to pay the "NVIDIA tax" or risk being left behind. Even tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI engage in brutal bidding wars to secure shipments. Supply chain constraints mean that even with the necessary funds, obtaining enough GPUs is a battle of connections and influence. NVIDIA controls not just the chips but the very infrastructure that fuels the AI revolution.

The true source of NVIDIA’s dominance lies not just in its hardware but in the software ecosystem it has built. CUDA, its proprietary programming model, serves as the foundation for nearly all AI development. Its deep integration into AI systems makes switching to alternatives like AMD’s ROCm or Intel’s OneAPI nearly impossible. Abandoning NVIDIA would require rewriting millions of lines of code, retraining AI models, and overhauling entire infrastructures. The result? A monopoly so deeply entrenched that even tech giants like Google and Amazon struggle to break free.

But monopolies come at a cost. Innovation is slowing as alternative hardware solutions fail to gain traction. AI research is increasingly centralized, accessible only to the wealthiest companies. Startups are priced out before they even begin. As a result, GPU rental services have emerged, forcing companies to lease computing power at exorbitant prices—turning AI into an industry where success is dictated by financial resources rather than pure talent.

The geopolitical stakes are equally severe. NVIDIA’s reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC for chip production makes AI’s most critical hardware vulnerable to global tensions. Recent U.S. export controls on high-end AI chips to China have further highlighted how NVIDIA’s monopoly is entangled with international power struggles. A disruption in the world’s AI chip supply could bring the entire industry to a standstill.

The question now is whether anyone can break NVIDIA’s grip. AMD and Intel are trying. Tech giants like Google and Meta are investing in custom AI chips, hoping to build an escape route. Regulators are debating whether NVIDIA’s bundling of hardware and CUDA constitutes an antitrust violation. If CUDA were ever forced open, the AI industry could experience a surge of competition and innovation. Until then, NVIDIA remains the godfather of AI—dictating the rules, setting the prices, and deciding who gets to play in the future of intelligence.